“If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is, because everything would be what it isn’t. And contrary wise, what is, it wouldn’t be. And what it wouldn’t be, it would. You see?” Alice in Alice in Wonderland!
In scenario planning, scenarios provide a way to think about the uncertain aspects of the future particularly those that seem most unsettled and worrying.
Building and using scenarios can help organisations explore what the future might look like and the likely challenges of living in it.
As I explained in my last post a scenario is a story that describes a possible future. But no one view of the future will be correct. So scenario builders create sets of scenarios. These scenarios address the same questions and include everything that is likely to persist from the present into the future.
Each scenario describes a different way that the future might play out.
Scenarios are based on educated guesses and intuition and they need to be supported with very good information and strong analysis! They are very carefully crafted structures.
But they are written as stories so that they can make that future seem vivid and compelling. Without that, the real value in determining how the organisation might respond will be lost!
Using graphics, images and illustrations makes scenarios more comprehensible. They are particularly useful when the scenario needs to contain a lot of complex statistical information.
Scenarios are not predictions – they are a way of dealing with uncertainty but no one has a crystal ball. Factors will change! But they provide a way to have a conversation about the future at strategic level.
Scenarios are a way to consider the potential implications of different events. They mean teams can think through possible responses.
They provide a great way to get a group in the same room and using the same language. This can be for a possible future or to help with thinking in a common way about current events.
Scenarios support a positive conversation about how to deal with future uncertainties and for making more successful strategic decisions
In my last post I mentioned that Shell has used scenario planning for quite a while! Well they have produced ‘Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide’ for people who would like to build and use scenarios, and also for those who want to enhance their scenario thinking skills. I will be providing a very simple guide to scenario planning here on Friday. But if you wish, you can download the Shell guide at this link.
Related articles
- Leading Change – Your Vision in an Uncertain Future – Scenario Planning Part 1 (wisewolftalking.com)
- Is Your Agency Doing Scenario Planning? (threeminds.organic.com)
- Scenarios: mapping the possible (cognitive-edge.com)
Wendy Mason is a performance, programme, contract management and change specialist. She works as a consultant, business coach and blogger. Adept at problem solving, she is a great person to bring in when that one thing you thought was straightforward turns out not to be! If you have a problem talk to Wendy – she can help you – email her atwendymason@wisewolfconsulting.com or ring ++44(0)7867681439
Planning an Event? Don’t let your flyer, fly away with you!
I just read a flyer for a two day event to be held in the summer and it left me with lots of questions.
The blurb on the front asks
It then talks about managing people to win customers and public approval and market share!
The speakers cover everything from career development to employment law as it applies at director level.
By implication at the end of the two days the questions above will be answered.
I was left wondering!
I looked at the speakers and I see a number of academics and coaches and others with exemplary experience of management.
Sadly I saw no wizards or anyone else competent to wield a magic wand or to read a crystal ball.
I am sure this will be a fantastic event and those present will feel it was thoroughly worthwhile. At the very least I’m sure they will hear about the latest developments in Human Resources.
But will they have solutions to the problems that are keeping their Board awake at night. Oh I suspect not!
In the present climate, much as we might wish they would, I suspect most board directors are not prioritising their personal development . Sad as it may be for HR Directors, I suspect most organisations are in survival, down size, out-source mode. At least these will challenge the skills of highly competent HR professionals!
As for how the workplace will change over the next ten years. Well now there’s a question! I doubt if the group are going to spend much time scenario planning – see earlier posts here!
I doubt the Trades Descriptions Act applies to this kind of event! And what a good thing it doesn’t, if it doesn’t! Otherwise, how bored we should be by the flyers!
The message for me was this. In these days of austeritiy be very careful. If you want people to come to your training event make sure it bears some relationship to current reality! And if you are choosing an event to attend (and spend money on) make sure you read the flyer, very, very carefully.
Wendy Mason works as a consultant, business coach and blogger. Adept at problem solving, she is a great person to bring in when that one thing you thought was straightforward turns out not to be! If you have a problem talk to Wendy – she can help you – email her atwendymason@wisewolfconsulting.com or ring ++44(0)7867681439
Share this:
→ Leave a comment
Posted in Comment
Tagged Conferences, Events, Flyers, Human resources, PR, Problem solving, Scenario planning